Analytic Assessments

Mission— Science and Technology Analytic Assessments

The Science and Technology (S&T) Analytic Assessments Project funds comparative assessments that integrate intelligence community insights and independent technical analysis to shape the development of innovative capabilities and address emerging threats from a diverse range of state and non-state actors as outlined in the Interim National Defense Strategy Guidance(INDSG) and as reported through the Intelligence Community (IC). Engineering and technology analysis is performed by Federally Funded Research and Development Centers, University Affiliated Research Centers, industry, and academia partners focused on analysis of critical Department of Defense (DoD) S&T investments and breakthroughs by U.S. strategic competitors. These assessments compare global science, technology, research and development efforts, and current state-of-the-science, and identify technology development strategies. Main lines of effort include: - Net technical assessments that characterize the technical state-of-the-art, measure relative national standing, and identify and assess technology applications for accomplishing strategically important military objectives to inform the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, Research and Engineering (OUSD(R&E)) technology development and investment decisions. - Quantitative, engineering-level analyses of novel technologies and concepts that identify potential areas of future technology overmatch. - Independent assessments of critical technology research and development efforts that compare U.S. and competitor nations. Operational and technical assessments identify prioritized operational issues and associated technology focus areas through comprehensive kill chain analysis across all domains through the year 2040. Characterizations of future operating environments and associated challenges inform the scoping and design efforts of S&T and engineering analyses for DoD. Main lines of effort include: - Technology-based Wargames that integrate information from the intelligence, technology, and operational communities to identify opportunities stemming from emerging technologies and evaluate the demands of the future operational environment. The outputs inform future concept and capability development, prototyping and experimentation activities, threat forecasting, and DoD S&T investments. - Operational Analyses focused on the dynamic interaction of U.S., ally and partner, and adversary military capabilities in a future operating environment. This analysis fuses IC assessments of future threats and operational impacts to the Joint Force, to enable technology-specific analysis in areas of critical challenge or opportunity.

Mission— Technology Watch/Horizon Scanning

The Technology Watch/Horizon Scanning (TW/HS) Project Code supports Global Research Watch activities through the identification of technology research trends and the forecasting of concepts and technology maturation with the potential for military application through 2040. TW/HS activities inform the Department’s investment decisions to achieve global competitive advantage. The program provides tailored technical assessments that identify the military relevance, research opportunities, and investment targets for emerging S&T. The Office of Strategic Intelligence and Analysis (OSI&A) enables intelligence-informed decision advantage across the S&T enterprise portfolio and informs the U.S. S&T intelligence posture by establishing linkages across the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, Research and Engineering (OUSD(R&E)) and the Intelligence Community (IC) entities.

Mission— Science and Technology (S&T) Analytic Assessments

This PE supports the Department's initiatives to Revive the Warrior Ethos, Rebuild Our Military, and Reestablish Deterrence. This program directly supports the Office of Strategic Intelligence and Analysis (OSI&A) for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, Research and Engineering (OUSD(R&E)). OSI&A’s campaign of analysis approach integrates intelligence reporting and independent technical expertise to execute comparative assessments. These assessments inform investment decisions and shape the development of innovative capabilities to address emerging threats and opportunities from a diverse range of state and non-state actors as outlined in the Interim National Defense Strategy Guidance (INDSG) and as reported through the Intelligence Community (IC). The complexity of capability gaps in the future operating environment combined with the speed of emerging threat development requires a broadly scoped “red vs blue” approach. This approach provides integrated baselines for OUSD(R&E) analyses and investment decisions that are reflective of cross-cutting Joint Force plans, missions, and concepts. Trends and potential impacts related to global critical and emerging technology developments are analyzed and assessed, and findings are integrated with IC reporting to enable decision advantage in OUSD(R&E) and inform strategies for maintaining technological superiority and modernizing key capabilities for the Joint Force. Analysis and assessments are focused on challenges related to INDSG objectives and competitors' research and development trends. Two lines of effort accomplish this mission: 1) Science and Technology (S&T) Analytic Assessments integrate information from the acquisition, intelligence, operational, and S&T communities to quantify key attributes of emerging critical challenges and assess counter technology opportunities. The framework includes execution of the following activities: - Net Technical Assessments (NTA). OSI&A partners with Federally Funded Research and Development Centers, University Affiliated Research Centers, industry, and academia to conduct comparative assessments of critical technologies to determine technological advantage and inform investment decisions across the Department of Defense (DoD) S&T Enterprise. Critical technologies of interest to the DoD and strategic context drawn from the NDS, NDSTS, and DoD planning efforts set the bounds for the assessment of technological applications that could deliver operational advantage to the Joint Force along future development and deployment timelines. - Operational and Technical Assessments. Evaluations of DoD operational scenarios and warfighting concepts that identify operational gaps, incorporating IC-derived adversary threat trends and the technical demands of the future operational environment to determine challenges that could be mitigated or eliminated through the application of emerging and disruptive technologies. - Technology-based Wargames. Execution of an array of purpose-built games and workshops that integrate the operational, technology, and intelligence communities to characterize emerging technologies in the context of the future operational environment, evaluate their disruptive potential, and identify opportunities and challenges. Insights from these efforts inform programmatic and policy decisions related to the development of operational concepts across the Department. 2) Technology Watch and Horizon Scanning combines analysis of complex, unstructured, open-source data sets with intelligence reporting to enable monitoring and analysis of global research and development activities, underpinning characterization of the global technology environment and informing portfolio investment decisions across the DoD S&T Enterprise. These characterizations enable Global Research Watch activities and establish the global technology landscape that informs OSI&A S&T analytic assessment efforts and frames the larger campaign of analysis. The framework includes the following activities: - Technology Watch. Analysis of global open-source science, technology, research, and development efforts and in-person conference, symposium, and workshop attendance to characterize the global landscape of known science, technology, and concepts and to identify trends that can provide indicators and warnings of disruptive technology advances. Integrating the methodologies and findings from technology forecasting, maturation assessments, and NTA efforts to identify technological development areas for research and investment. - Horizon Scanning. Systematic execution of analytic techniques applied to large, complex open-source data for the identification of emerging science and technology capable of altering the future operating environment. - Intelligence Integration. Structured execution of recurring technical exchanges between the OUSD(R&E) stakeholders and S&T intelligence subject matter experts. These engagements enable the direct exchange of OUSD(R&E) intelligence needs and IC finished intelligence products to complement open-source findings and establish a comprehensive understanding of the global technology landscape. Additionally, OUSD(R&E) level input and perspectives support IC scientific and technical intelligence initiatives and inform intelligence community priorities, investment decisions, and strategic direction. - International Partner Collaboration. Cooperative identification and early-stage investigation of emerging technologies that generate opportunities and solve critical challenges common to the national security of the U.S. and our international partners. Due to the emergent nature of challenges and threats, specific analytic foci are unlikely to be identified beyond the current budget year. The process for developing and executing assessments can span fiscal years and may have multiple phases as trends progress and new information arises through open-source technology trend analysis and intelligence reporting.

Accomplishments & Planned Programs (2)